By: Mohamed Abdisamed, Horn of Africa Political analyst
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent one-day visit to the Somalia capital, Mogadishu, marks a surprising shift in the two countries’ strained relations. This diplomatic thaw follows a period of heightened tension when Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud publicly labeled Abiy Ahmed an enemy of Somalia, accusing him of undermining the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. At that time, the Somalia government had organized mass protests in Mogadishu, protesting the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia.
The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU and Somalia’s Reaction
On January 1, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed an MoU, which has significant geopolitical ramifications. While the full details of the agreement have yet to be revealed, reports suggest Ethiopia agreed to support Somaliland’s bid for international recognition in exchange for a 50-year lease of a small section of Somaliland’s coastline along the Gulf of Aden.
Somalia’s reaction to the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU was swift and strongly opposed:
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Official Rejection: The Somalia government immediately rejected the MoU, recalling its ambassador to Ethiopia and prioritizing efforts to block the agreement.
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Parliamentary Action: On January 6, President Mohamud signed a bill in the Somalia Parliament declaring the MoU “null and void,” though this move was largely symbolic.
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Public Protests: The Somalia government organized mass protests in Mogadishu, drawing participation from students, civil society groups, and government officials who voiced their opposition to the agreement.
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Diplomatic Efforts: President Mohamud launched an international campaign to engage with the UN, African Union, IGAD, and the Arab League, urging them to condemn the MoU and support Somalia’s stance.
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Proxy War Threats: Some Somalia officials, including Foreign Minister Ahmed Fiqi, even hinted at using the Khatumo militia as a proxy force against Somaliland.
Somaliland’s Stance on Somalia’s Opposition to the MoU
In response to Somalia’s objections, former Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi was clear: “Hassan Sheikh is not opposing Ethiopia; he is opposing Somaliland’s agreements with the world and falsely claiming that our country is illegal. Our purpose in signing the MoU with Ethiopia is clear—Somaliland is an independent country.”
Similarly, Somaliland’s former Interior Minister and current opposition party leader, Mohamed Kahin, demanded Somalia apologize for falsely claiming Somaliland as part of its territory.
Newly elected President of Somaliland, Dr. Abdirahman Irro, expressed his support for the MoU, emphasizing that it would be reviewed by legislative bodies. He had previously stated that his administration would implement the MoU if it benefited Somaliland.
The Ankara Declaration: A Turning Point in Ethiopia-Somalia Relations
As tensions continued to rise, Ethiopia and Somalia signed the Ankara Declaration, which aimed to de-escalate the conflict between the two nations. This marked a dramatic shift in Somalia’s position, as the country that had previously labeled Ethiopia its enemy warmly welcomed Abiy Ahmed with songs and flowers. Many observers view this shift as political opportunism and a strategy to undermine Somaliland.
Despite the newfound warmth between Ethiopia and Somalia, Ethiopia remains firmly committed to its partnership with Somaliland. At the World Government Summit in the UAE, President Irro reaffirmed that Ethiopia considers Somaliland its “first friend.” (Source: President’s speech at the World Government Summit)
Somaliland’s Response to the Ankara Declaration
Somaliland, however, has distanced itself from the Ankara Declaration. Mohamed Farah Abdi, a spokesman for Somaliland’s ruling Waddani Party, dismissed the agreement as irrelevant to Somaliland, stating: “The agreement in Ankara does not concern us. It is between two neighbors, and we are Somaliland. It is normal for two brotherly nations to engage, but it is of no relevance to us.” (Horn Review sources)
Who Benefits the Most?
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Ethiopia: Ethiopia emerges as the biggest winner in this scenario, gaining access to the strategic Indian Ocean while securing a continued military presence in Somalia—something Mogadishu had previously opposed.
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Somaliland: Somaliland maintains its sovereignty and continues to strengthen its diplomatic and economic ties with Ethiopia without yielding to Somalia’s influence. The MoU positions Somaliland as a key regional player.
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Somalia: Somalia finds itself facing political setbacks, having initially opposed Ethiopia’s involvement with Somaliland, only to later welcome Abiy Ahmed with open arms. This inconsistency in Somalia’s foreign policy has exposed the country to internal and diplomatic challenges.
In conclusion, Ethiopia appears to be the ultimate beneficiary of this shifting geopolitical landscape, while Somalia finds itself in a difficult position, with the decisions it previously rejected now becoming difficult to ignore.
