AU Commission Election: African Leaders Vote for New Chairperson as Somaliland Favors Raila Odinga

By:Mohamed Duale, Horndiplomat Editor

The African Union (AU) is holding its highly anticipated election for a new Chairperson of the AU Commission (AUC) during the 38th Ordinary Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, taking place on February 15–16, 2025. The vote will determine the successor to Moussa Faki Mahamat of Chad, who has led the Commission since 2017.

The Candidates

Three contenders are competing for Africa’s top diplomatic job:

• Raila Odinga (Kenya) – A veteran politician and former Prime Minister of Kenya, Odinga has also served as the AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development.

• Mahamoud Ali Youssouf (Djibouti) – Djibouti’s long-serving Minister of Foreign Affairs, known for his deep experience in African diplomacy and regional security.

• Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) – Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Finance, with strong economic and governance expertise.

Somaliland’s Preferred Candidate

Although Somaliland is not a member of the AU, it is closely monitoring the election due to its diplomatic aspirations and regional interests. Somaliland authorities have shown a preference for Raila Odinga, citing his previous support for the recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty and his diplomatic experience in advancing African interests globally.

Mr. Odinga has been a vocal advocate for Somaliland’s recognition, famously stating during a speech at Chatham House on 29 July 2016, “I am a strong supporter of the full recognition of Somaliland. I think there is a very strong case.” His stance aligns with Somaliland’s ongoing efforts to gain diplomatic recognition and strengthen its position in Africa.

During his tenure as AU Infrastructure Representative, Odinga engaged with Somaliland officials on regional connectivity projects, strengthening economic and political ties. His leadership is seen as a potential boost for Somaliland’s push for diplomatic recognition and deeper engagement with African institutions.

In contrast, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti, despite his extensive experience, is viewed with caution by Somaliland due to Djibouti’s close ties with Somalia, which continues to oppose Somaliland’s independence. Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar, while respected, has had limited direct engagement with Somaliland affairs.

Election Process & Strategic Implications

The 55 AU member states will vote in a secret ballot, requiring a candidate to secure at least two-thirds (36 votes) to win. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, multiple rounds will follow.

The election outcome will significantly influence Africa’s foreign policy, economic integration (AfCFTA), and peace & security agenda, making this a pivotal moment for the continent.

Why This Matters for Somaliland

Somaliland’s diplomatic strategy focuses on engaging with African leaders who can champion self-determination and regional cooperation. A victory for Odinga could strengthen Somaliland’s case for AU discussions on recognition, while a win for Youssouf may maintain the status quo of Somalia’s influence over AU policies.

The results of the election are expected to be announced by February 16, 2025. Stay updated with Horn Diplomat for the latest developments.

SOURCE:HORNDIPLOMAT