Opinion | Balancing Rival Powers in the Region: A Puzzle for Somaliland’s New Administration

By: Abdillahi Mohamed Bile

As Somaliland’s new administration assumes power, it faces a critical foreign policy challenge: balancing the competing influences of regional and global powers. This task is not only a test of diplomacy but also a cornerstone for maintaining the region’s stability and advancing Somaliland’s quest for international recognition.

A Complex Geopolitical Landscape

Somaliland, a self-declared independent state in the Horn of Africa, has long sought to carve a distinct identity amid a turbulent region. Its strategic location along the Gulf of Aden places it at the intersection of several rivalries involving major players like Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, and broader influences from the Gulf states, Turkey, China, and the United States.

Each actor has competing interests in the Horn of Africa, whether economic, political, or military, and their activities often have ripple effects across the region. For Somaliland, navigating these dynamics requires careful diplomacy to safeguard its stability and sovereignty without alienating key partners.

The Rivalries at Play

 1. The Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar

The Gulf’s involvement in Somaliland reflects broader rivalries. The UAE’s investment in the Berbera port and military base has strengthened Somaliland’s economic prospects but also placed it squarely in the crosshairs of Gulf geopolitics. Qatar and Turkey, aligned with Somalia, counterbalance the UAE’s influence, complicating Somaliland’s ability to navigate these relationships without appearing partisan.

 2. Ethiopia and Somalia

Federal Republic of Ethiopia remains a critical ally of Somaliland, sharing deep historical and economic ties. However, Ethiopia’s internal instability and its fluctuating relations with Somalia and MoU recently signed with Somaliland pose challenges for Somaliland. Meanwhile, Somalia’s refusal to recognize Somaliland’s independence adds a layer of complexity, particularly as it courts international backers who oppose secessionist movements.

 3. China and the United States

The competition between China and the United States has begun to spill over into the Horn of Africa. While China pursues economic investments and infrastructure development, including in Djibouti and Ethiopia, the U.S. focuses on counterterrorism and strategic military interests. Somaliland’s openness to hosting U.S. military facilities, as well as Taiwan’s presence in Hargeisa, has attracted Beijing’s ire, creating a delicate balancing act for the administration.

The Challenges Ahead

The new administration in Somaliland must approach these rivalries with a strategy that prioritizes Somaliland’s long-term stability and development while avoiding entanglements that could undermine its independence. Key challenges include:

 1. Maintaining Neutrality

Somaliland must remain cautious about taking sides in regional rivalries. Aligning too closely with one actor risks alienating others, potentially leading to economic or political isolation.

 2. Leveraging Strategic Assets

The Berbera port and its location along key maritime trade routes provide Somaliland with significant bargaining power. The administration should use these assets to attract investment and partnerships that promote self-reliance and regional integration.

 3. Strengthening Regional Diplomacy

Building stronger ties with neighbors like Ethiopia and Kenya can help Somaliland buffer external pressures. Pursuing regional economic cooperation and security agreements could reinforce its position as a stabilizing force in the Horn of Africa.

 4. Balancing Recognition Efforts with Pragmatism

While the quest for international recognition remains paramount, it should not come at the cost of alienating key partners or compromising internal stability. The administration must strike a balance between seeking recognition and fostering practical, mutually beneficial relationships.

A Path Forward

To navigate this puzzle, Somaliland’s new administration must adopt a multi-pronged strategy:

 • Diversify partnerships to reduce over-reliance on any single actor.

 • Focus on economic resilience by investing in infrastructure, trade, and education to reduce vulnerability to external pressures.

 • Strengthen internal governance to project an image of stability and reliability to potential partners.

 • Enhance public diplomacy to communicate Somaliland’s unique position and potential as a partner for peace and development in the region.

Conclusion

Balancing rival powers is no easy task, but it is one that Somaliland’s new administration must embrace with foresight and pragmatism. By carefully navigating the complex web of regional and global interests, Somaliland can not only protect its sovereignty but also position itself as a key player in the Horn of Africa’s future.

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About the Author

Abdillahi Mohamed Bile, PhD candidate for Peace and Security Studies. HOA political, international strategic affairs & security analyst.

X formerly @BileAbdillahi

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