Opinion: Peace and Progress: How Somaliland’s peaceful path differentiates from Somalia’s Turbulent Journey

By: Mohamed O. Osman Guudle (PhD)

Abstract

This paper explores the distinct developmental trajectories of Somaliland and Somalia through a comparative lens. Despite lacking international recognition, Somaliland has achieved remarkable progress in establishing peace, democracy, and economic development after it ousted the troops of neighboring ‘Somali Democratic Republic’ in 1991, and immediately reclaimed the sovereignty it had gained from Great Britain at the time of its independence in 1960. The visible economic successes in Somaliland are entirely funded by Somaliland’s internal resources that rely solely on citizen taxes and local industries, to fund government administration, defense, education, health, development, and infrastructure. Key areas of progress include four successful local, and parliamentary elections as well as five peaceful presidential elections where three candidates were elected by almost seven hundred thousand electorates that were issued voting cards with their identity verified by Iris biometric identification. Somaliland also has seen a vibrant and substantial trade and tourism growth, and the development of its trade with Ethiopia through the Berbera port and road corridor. Additionally, Somaliland’s commitment to combating terrorism and piracy, coupled with robust law enforcement, has significantly contributed to its stability. While the waters of Somalia have become known for piracy, there has never been a single incident of piracy in the 850 kilometers of Somaliland’s coastline. The private sector has thrived under consistent governance encouragement and has bolstered by industries such as livestock export. Notably, Somaliland has achieved significant development in education and health, particularly, in the reduction of maternal mortality, all with minimal international aid. In stark contrast, Somalia faces ongoing violent conflicts, political instability, and economic challenges. Terrorist groups control vast swathes of southern and central Somalia, taxing and extorting local populations. Somalia’s weak government relies heavily on foreign aid and assistance, even to manage the capital, Mogadishu, and to administer the small Benadir region under its control. The rest of the country falls under the control of the militant group Al-Shabaab and partly by the Federal member states. Additionally, Somalia has never held democratic one-person-one-vote elections in over 64 years, further highlighting the contrast with Somaliland’s democratic processes, which have already been referred to, holds the record of peacefully, and successfully holding a Referendum in 2001, five Presidential elections, and several Parliamentary and Local Government elections during that time. By comparing these experiences this study aims to provide a nuanced understanding of how internal governance, resource management, and external challenges influence the development trajectories of these neighboring countries, namely Somalia and the Republic of Somaliland. The analysis reveals that effective governance, community resilience, and strategic development initiatives are crucial for fostering peace and progress. Somaliland’s experience underscores the significant impact of democratic processes, economic self-reliance, and effective security measures in achieving stability, offering valuable insights for other regions facing similar challenges.

Keywords: Somaliland, Somalia, Peace, Development, Comparative Study

Background

The Horn of Africa, a region fraught with political instability, economic hardship, and social upheaval, presents a stark dichotomy between the trajectories of Somaliland and Somalia. Despite their shared history and geographical proximity, these two regions have diverged significantly in terms of governance, security, and development. Since restoring its lost independence in 1991, Somaliland has established a relatively stable and democratic state, in sharp contrast to former Italian Somalia, which continues to struggle with corruption and violent conflict, weak governance, and economic stagnation. This paper aims to explore the distinct developmental trajectories of Somaliland and Somalia through a comparative study, highlighting the factors that have contributed to Somaliland’s success and Somalia’s ongoing challenges.

By comparing the developmental trajectories of Somaliland and Somalia, this paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of how internal governance and external challenges shape the realities of these neighboring regions. The comparative analysis reveals that effective governance, community resilience, and strategic development initiatives are crucial in fostering peace and progress. Somaliland’s experience underscores the significant impact of democratic processes, economic development, and security measures in achieving stability, offering valuable insights for other regions facing similar challenges .

Somaliland, although not internationally recognized as a sovereign state, has made remarkable progress in establishing peace, democracy, and economic development. It has conducted successful local, parliamentary, and presidential elections, developed key economic sectors such as trade and livestock export, and maintained security through robust law enforcement and anti-terrorism measures (Bradbury, 2008; Lewis, 2002). Conversely, Somalia remains embroiled in conflict, with terrorist groups controlling large swathes of territory and a weak government reliant on African Union forces for survival (Barnes & Hassan, 2007; Menkhaus, 2007).

Historical Context

Somaliland’s quest for independence and sovereignty is deeply rooted in its colonial history. Formerly a British protectorate, Somaliland gained independence from Great Britain on June 26, 1960, and became recognized by over 30 countries, including the United States. However, just five days later, it voluntarily united with the Trust Territory of Somalia (formerly Italian Somalia) to form a voluntary union between these two independent countries with the hope that former ‘Cote Francaise des Somalis’ would also join the union when it too gained its independence. However, the union between Somaliland and Somalia was never legally ratified and has been fraught with challenges and dissatisfaction, within Somalia and particularly from the Somaliland side (Kaplan, 2008; Drysdale, 1992).

Following the collapse of the central Somalia government in 1991, Somaliland withdrew from the union and unilaterally declared its sovereignty. This declaration came after a brutal civil war and the collapse of Siad Barre’s Marxist regime, which led to widespread violence and human rights abuses in the regions of former British Somaliland. The declaration of independence from Somalia, and sovereignty were based on the principle of self-determination and the need for self-governance, given the total failure of the rule of law in Somalia and that of the union between Somaliland and Somalia (Bradbury, 2008; Jhazbhay, 2009).

Proponents of Somaliland’s independence argue that its colonial history and the brief period of recognized independence in 1960 establish a legitimate claim to statehood. According to international law, particularly the principle of uti possidetis juris, colonial borders should be preserved post-independence, thus validating Somaliland’s pre-union borders as the legitimate boundaries of an independent state (Kaplan, 2008; Drysdale, 1992).

The right to self-determination is a fundamental principle under international law, enshrined in key documents such as the United Nations Charter and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Somaliland’s leaders argue that the people of Somaliland have exercised their right to self-determination through referenda and elections that have consistently supported independence from Somalia (Bradbury, 2008; Jhazbhay, 2009).

Somaliland has demonstrated effective governance, maintaining relative peace and stability compared to the lawlessness in Somalia. By contrast, Somaliland has established functioning political institutions, held multiple democratic elections (all attended by International Observers), and provided essential services to its population. This de facto statehood supports its claim for de jure recognition under the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, which outlines the criteria for statehood, including a permanent population, a defined territory, government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states (Hoehne, 2011; Bradbury, 2008).

The lack of recognition has not deterred Somaliland from pursuing its goals. It maintains informal diplomatic relations with several countries and international organizations, which provide some development aid and humanitarian support. There have been calls within academic and diplomatic circles for a more pragmatic approach to Somaliland’s situation, recognizing its achievements in governance and stability as a basis for reconsidering its status (Bryden, 2003; Kaplan, 2008).

In contrast, Somalia’s post-Marxist period has been marked by chronic instability and conflict. Following the ousting of President Siad Barre in 1991, Somalia descended into a protracted civil war characterized by clan-based violence, the rise of warlords, and the emergence of extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab (Menkhaus, 2007). In spite of the massive military and financial aid that Somalia receives from the international community and from the multinational Peace-keeping Forces that included the American Marines and other military contingents from 28 nations, the absence of a functioning central government in Somalia has resulted in widespread lawlessness and humanitarian crises for the past 33 years, with millions displaced as refugees and with those remaining within Somalia living in dire conditions.

Governance and Democracy

Somaliland’s success in establishing a stable and democratic governance structure is a significant factor in its relative stability and development. Since its separation from Somalia, Somaliland has conducted multiple elections at the local, parliamentary, and presidential levels, demonstrating a commitment to democratic principles and processes (Hesse, 2010). These elections have generally been regarded as free and fair by international observers, contributing to the legitimacy of the government and the trust of the populace (Walls, 2013).

The governance structure in Somaliland is characterized by a hybrid system that combines traditional clan-based governance with modern democratic institutions. This system has been instrumental in maintaining social cohesion and political stability, as it allows for the representation of diverse clan interests while upholding democratic norms (Bradbury, 2008). Furthermore, Somaliland’s constitution, adopted in 2001 through a national plebiscite, enshrines democratic rights and the rule of law, providing a solid foundation for governance and development (Lewis, 2002).

In contrast, Somalia has struggled to establish effective governance and democratic processes. The Transitional Federal Government (TFG), established in 2004, and its successor, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) established in 2012 but continues to face significant challenges in asserting authority and control over the country. The lack of a stable central government has hindered efforts to conduct credible elections, with power often concentrated in the hands of clan leaders and warlords. The political process in Somalia has been marred by corruption, violence, and manipulation, undermining the legitimacy of the government and its ability to govern effectively.

Economic Development

Somaliland has taken significant strides towards economic development, underpinned by strategic infrastructure investments and sectoral growth. The most notable development is the expansion of the Berbera Port, with a substantial investment from DP World amounting to $442 million. The first phase of this expansion, completed in 2021, included a new container terminal capable of handling 500,000 TEUs annually, with plans to increase capacity to 2 million TEUs. This development is part of a broader strategy to transform Berbera into a major regional trade hub, complemented by the Berbera Economic Zone (BEZ). The BEZ, which has already attracted foreign investors, and created hundreds of jobs, offers a conducive business environment with fiscal incentives and modern facilities, mirroring successful models like Dubai’s Jebel Ali Free Zone (Dahir, 2021; World Bank, 2022).

To further improve trade and traffic between Berbera Port and land-locked Ethiopia, DP World and Great Britain have spent over Two Hundred and Fifty pounds for the 250-kilometer road that links the port of Berbera to the Ethiopian border.

Livestock export remains a vital and traditional sector in Somaliland’s economy, particularly trading with the Middle East. Regular shipments to countries such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE, bolster this sector, which is essential for the livelihoods of many Somalilanders and a significant contributor to the GDP. Although this sector is not as developed as the port and livestock sectors, Somaliland has oil, coal, gas, and minerals such as gold, and is said to have the biggest gypsum deposits in the world, which offers great potential, although these are yet untapped (World Bank, 2022; Eno & Samatar, 2021).

Somalia: Dependence on Foreign Aid

Somalia’s economy, in contrast, is heavily dependent on foreign aid due to prolonged conflict and instability. The Federal Government of Somalia relies heavily on international donors to fund security expenses, government employees, the salaries of its Members of Parliament, and various other sectors, including health, education, and infrastructure. This dependency underscores Somalia’s vulnerability and the lack of self-sustaining economic mechanisms (Menkhaus, 2018; Hammond, 2013).

While agriculture and livestock remain a significant part of Somalia’s economy, the sector does not exhibit the same level of structured growth as seen in Somaliland. The economy of Somalia, which had a strong agricultural base when the country was an Italian colony, currently struggles to maintain stability and growth due the expulsion of the Italian owners of the major productive farms and also due to governance challenges, persistent insecurity and lack of knowhow (Hammond, 2013).

The contrasting economic trajectories of Somaliland and Somalia illustrate the profound impact of political stability and strategic investment. While Somaliland has focused its efforts on infrastructure development, particularly through the expansion of Berbera Port and the establishment of the BEZ, both of which have attracted significant foreign investment, and have also attracted the return of thousands of it people from the diaspora, thus positioning it as an emerging trade hub. Conversely, Somalia’s heavy reliance on foreign aid highlights ongoing instability and hinders comprehensive development strategies to build sustainable economic sectors. The comparison underscores the critical role of governance in economic development. Somaliland’s relative political stability and strategic use of resources have enabled it to make significant economic progress, while Somalia’s persistent challenges have impeded similar advancements.

Economic development is another area where Somaliland and Somalia present a stark contrast. Somaliland has made significant strides in economic development, particularly in the sectors of trade, livestock export, and infrastructure development. The Berbera port and corridor project is a notable example of Somaliland’s efforts to position itself as a regional trade hub, attracting investment and fostering economic growth (Hesse, 2010). The livestock sector, which is a cornerstone of Somaliland’s economy, has also thrived, with exports to Gulf countries providing a vital source of revenue .

The private sector in Somaliland has played a crucial role in driving economic growth, supported by a conducive business environment and stable governance. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have flourished, contributing to job creation and economic diversification. Additionally, Somaliland has achieved significant progress in education and health sectors, with improvements in access and quality of services (Walls, 2013). These developments have been achieved without significant international aid, underscoring the resilience and resourcefulness of Somaliland’s people and government (Bradbury, 2008).

In contrast, Somalia’s economy remains severely underdeveloped, hampered by ongoing conflict, political instability, and lack of infrastructure. The persistent insecurity and lawlessness have deterred investment and disrupted economic activities, leading to widespread poverty and unemployment (Barnes & Hassan, 2007). The agricultural sector, which was the mainstay of the economy, has suffered from neglect and conflict, resulting in food insecurity and dependence on humanitarian aid (Mubarak, 1997). Furthermore, Somalia’s financial system is underdeveloped, with limited access to banking services and credit facilities (Höhle, 2015).

Security and Stability

Security and stability are critical factors that have shaped the developmental trajectories of Somaliland and Somalia. Somaliland’s relative stability can be attributed to its effective security apparatus and commitment to combating piracy and terrorism in which the public of Somaliland plays a major role. The Somaliland police, who have been trained by Britain, and military forces, although limited in resources, have been effective in maintaining law and order and countering security threats (Hesse, 2010). Additionally, Somaliland has implemented measures to combat piracy off its coast, contributing to maritime security throughout the 850 kilometers of Somaliland’s coastline (Walls, 2013). Thankfully, although Somaliland has been targeted on several occasions, there were three car bombs in one day in August 2008, Somaliland remains secure and stable.

Somalia, on the other hand, continues to face almost daily security challenges since 1991. Terrorist groups such as Al-Shabaab control most of former Italian Somalia, including the capital city of Mogadisho, imposing taxes on local populations and extorting businesses (Barnes & Hassan, 2007). The Somali government, despite being supported by African Union Mission (AMISOM) forces, struggles to assert control and provide security. The reliance on external forces has undermined the government’s legitimacy and sovereignty, with large parts of the country remaining beyond its control (Menkhaus, 2007). The ongoing conflict has resulted in massive displacement, human rights abuses, and a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions (Lewis, 2002). The refugee camps of Dhadhaab and Kakuma in Kenya which give shelter to hundreds of thousands, are stark examples of the lawlessness in Somalia that drives its people out of the country.

Social Development

Social development indicators in Somaliland and Somalia further highlight the disparity between the two regions. Somaliland has made notable progress in education and health sectors, with improvements in access, quality, and outcomes. The government’s investment in these sectors, coupled with support from local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), has led to increased school enrollment, better healthcare services, and improved health outcomes (Walls, 2013). The education sector in Somaliland has particularly benefited from the establishment of new schools and universities offering free primary education to over half a million school children. This provides opportunities for the youth and contributes to human capital development (Bradbury, 2008). Although there is still much room for improvement, the maternal mortality rate in Somaliland has reduced from 160,000/100,000 Livebirths (LB) in 1991, to less than 500/100,000 LB in 2023.

In contrast, Somalia’s social development indicators remain among the lowest in the world. The prolonged conflict has devastated the education and health systems, leaving millions without access to basic services (Barnes & Hassan, 2007). School enrollment rates are low, and the quality of education is poor, with many schools destroyed or non-functional. The health sector is similarly affected, with limited access to healthcare services, high maternal and child mortality rates, and widespread malnutrition (Menkhaus, 2007). The lack of investment in social infrastructure and the ongoing insecurity have exacerbated these challenges, making it difficult for Somalia to achieve meaningful social development (Lewis, 2002).

Humanitarian Role

Somaliland’s humanitarian role in hosting refugees from Somalia, Yemen and Ethiopia is another aspect that underscores its relative stability and resilience. Over the years, Somaliland has provided refuge to hundreds of thousands of people fleeing conflict and violence in Somalia. This humanitarian effort has placed significant strain on Somaliland’s resources, yet it has managed to provide support and integrate refugees into its communities (Walls, 2013). This contrasts sharply with the dire humanitarian situation within Somalia, where displacement, food insecurity, and lack of basic services continue to pose significant challenges (Barnes & Hassan, 2007).

Elections

Somaliland and Somalia present a stark contrast in their political trajectories and democratic developments. Since withdrawing from the failed union with Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has made significant strides towards establishing a stable, functioning democracy. In contrast, Somalia has struggled with prolonged instability and has not held democratic nationwide elections since the last civilian government of Somalia, which was ousted in October 1969, held elections in the spring of that year.

Somaliland’s democratic progress is notable given its lack of international recognition. It has conducted multiple elections that are considered credible and peaceful. For instance, with the introduction of Iris Biometric identification, used during the Presidential elections in 2017, and the parliamentary and local council elections held on May 31, 2021, were a significant milestone. These elections, despite delays and some logistical challenges, were conducted smoothly and resulted in a surprise victory for the opposition. The ruling party accepted the results without major conflicts, underscoring the strength of Somaliland’s democratic institutions and political culture (Crisis Group, 2021; SomTribune, 2021). It is also noteworthy that nearly one million eligible voters registered themselves, and over 650,000 persons, with the presence of international observers, cast their votes throughout Somaliland.

Moreover, Somaliland’s upcoming elections in November 2024, which are fully funded by the government of Somaliland, are expected to build on this democratic success. These elections will mark the fourth time the country has held presidential elections by universal suffrage, showcasing its commitment to democratic principles despite ongoing challenges. Notably, these elections have seen peaceful transfers of power, a rarity in the Horn of Africa (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).

In contrast, Somalia’s political landscape remains fraught with challenges. Although entirely dependent on international funding, the country has not held direct elections since 1969, and its political system relies heavily on indirect elections and clan-based power-sharing arrangements. The last significant attempt at a nationwide election was marred by delays and security concerns, and the government continues to depend on international peacekeepers and funding to maintain a semblance of law and order (Crisis Group, 2021; CFR, 2021).

Somaliland’s ability to conduct elections and maintain relative stability is a testament to its robust democratic framework and political will. Conversely, Somalia’s ongoing struggles highlight the complexities of nation-building in a region plagued by conflict and insecurity. The divergent paths of these two regions underscore the importance of inclusive governance, effective institutions, and the political will to foster democracy and stability (SomTribune, 2021; CFR, 2021).

Comparative Analysis of the Education and Health Sectors in Somaliland and Somalia

Education Sector

Somaliland has made considerable strides in developing its education system despite its challenging environment. The government of Somaliland, with support from various international partners, has implemented several strategic plans to enhance educational access and quality. The Somaliland Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP) 2017-2021, which offers equal access to education for girls and boys, emphasizes expanding access to quality education, reducing barriers to education, and ensuring equitable learning outcomes. The gross enrollment rate for primary education in Somaliland, however, remains steady, having increased marginally from 31.5% in 2015 to 38% in 2020/21 (Global Partnership for Education, 2023). Despite these efforts, the region still relies heavily on external support to meet its educational goals (Global Partnership for Education, 2017). It is important to mention that all Primary Public education in Somaliland is provided free of charge and has been since 2015.

In contrast, Somalia has faced more significant challenges due to prolonged conflict and instability. The Federal Government of Somalia has prioritized reconstructing the education system since its establishment in 2012. Nevertheless, systemic issues such as limited policy instruments, regulatory structures, and implementation capacity persist. As of 2022, Somalia’s primary gross enrollment rate stood at a mere 31%, reflecting the ongoing struggles to provide accessible education to its population (Global Partnership for Education, 2023). Efforts to improve access to education have focused on constructing and rehabilitating schools, reducing financial barriers for marginalized children, and increasing the number of trained teachers.

Health Sector

In the health sector, Somaliland has also demonstrated more robust infrastructure and services compared to Somalia. Somaliland’s Ministry of Health Development has been active in implementing health policies and strategies aimed at improving healthcare delivery and outcomes for all regions and districts in the country, with added focus on reaching the isolated communities. Despite challenges, such as recurring droughts and economic limitations, Somaliland has maintained a relatively stable health sector, supported by both government initiatives and international aid (Global Partnership for Education, 2023).

On the other hand, Somalia continues to struggle with severe health challenges. The protracted conflict has devastated Somalia’s health infrastructure, leaving the country with limited healthcare services, especially in rural areas. High rates of maternal and child mortality, widespread malnutrition, and limited access to essential health services are significant issues. International organizations and humanitarian efforts play a crucial role in providing healthcare in Somalia, but the country’s health indicators remain among the poorest globally (Global Partnership for Education, 2023).

While Somalia faces significant challenges in its education and health sectors, Somaliland has achieved relatively better outcomes due to more stable governance and effective strategic planning. Somalia, hindered by ongoing conflict and instability, continues to face substantial hurdles in providing adequate education and healthcare services to its population. The support of international partners remains vital for both regions to address these persistent challenges and improve their overall human development indicators.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the divergent paths of Somaliland and Somalia offer profound insights into the significance of governance, security, and economic strategy in shaping a region’s development. Somaliland’s success, despite the lack of international recognition, can be attributed to its effective governance structures, commitment to democratic processes, the will of its people, and its strategic investments in key sectors such as trade and infrastructure. The establishment of a stable political system, coupled with community resilience and local resource mobilization, has allowed Somaliland to achieve remarkable progress in peace, security, and economic development, earning it the description of a rare African Miracle.

Conversely, Somalia’s ongoing struggles underscore the challenges of weak and corrupt government, persistent insecurity, and dependence on foreign aid. The central government’s inability to assert control and the pervasive influence of extremist groups have led to continued instability, economic stagnation, and humanitarian crises. The stark contrast between the two countries highlights the critical role that effective governance, security, and self-reliance play in fostering sustainable development.

Somaliland’s experience serves as a valuable model for other regions facing similar challenges, demonstrating that even in the absence of international recognition, a commitment to democratic principles, economic self-reliance, and strategic development initiatives can lead to significant achievements in peace and progress. The lessons learned from this comparative analysis can inform broader discussions on state-building, conflict resolution, and development in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

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About The Author

Dr. Mohamed Osman Guudle is an Associate Professor at the School of Graduate Studies of the University of Hargeisa, Somaliland. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science and International Relations from Istanbul University, an M.Sc. in Economics from Bilgi University in Istanbul, and an M.A. in Development Economics from Unity University in Addis Ababa. His research expertise encompasses economics, development economics, economic security, political science, political conflicts, and post-conflict issues in the Horn of Africa. Dr. Guudle has published peer-reviewed journals including Middle Eastern Studies, The Journal of Mediterranean Basin and African Civilizations, Asya Studies, The Journal of African Development, and The Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

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