Op-Ed: Hassan Sheik Mohamoud: Hamid Karzai of Somalia

By: Dr. Barkhad M. Kaariye

The political history of Somalia had been in different legacies under different leaders, from successors of colonial power, elected civilian leaders, a tyrant military government to radicalized and violent terrorist form of governance in Mogadishu and other regions. Moreover, during the colonial power in Somalia till the incumbent government leading by Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, the country had been somehow under international administration.

From AFIS to AUSSOM: International protection at a glance

Ten years prior to the independence, Somalia was entrusted to the administration of AFIS or United Nations Trusteeship Administration, headed by Italy (Amministrazione Fiduciaria Italiana della Somalia). It was mandated to ready the country for a self-government system. Upon independence from Italy, an unsuccessful and failed union was arranged with Somaliland, the former British Protectorate which became independent a week before Somalia’s independence. The aim was to have all Somalis under one government – the Somali Republic – An ideology, that engulfed the region with armed conflicts, genocide, intra-state wars and other man-made disasters. Due to the decline of the tryrant military government led by Mohamed Siad Barre and the withdrawal of Somaliland from the failed and unratified union, the country went into civil war and became a ‘failed state’. The international community had intervened and made several efforts to rebuild the governance system of Somalia. In December 1992, United States begun ‘Operation Restore Hope’ by sending in 25,000 international troops in Mogadishu. UN held different ‘National reconciliation’ conferences in overseas. These conferences were held in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Eretria and many other countries to facilitate Somalia to get back its law and order, but most of these efforts failed. Union of Islamic Courts, a radical armed movement, had grouped and took over Somalia’s capital Mogadishu in 2006. The most perilous extremism group in the region-Al-Shabaab emerged from ICU, notwithstanding several attempts by the international community to dismantle the ICU.

Arms embargo was imposed on Somalia to avert the further escalation of extremism and armed conflicts. On 20th February 2007, the Security Council passed Resolution 1744, which authorized the deployment of an African Union Mission in Somalia – AMISOM within six months, with a mandate to provide security for the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia. The mandate has furthermore been extended to 2022. When the AMISOM mandate expired, another mission came on board: ATMIS-African Transition Mission in Somalia, established in April 2022. From January 2025, AUSSOM – African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia shall replace ATMIS to operate in Somalia. All the above-mentioned international or continental-led peace operations and interventions have the same objective: protecting weak governments of Somalia and the stabilization of Somalia, which has not been achieved as intended yet.

Security challenges and Insurgency

President of Somalia, Hassan Sheik Mohamoud, declared war on the terrorist organization Al-Shabaab in Somalia – one of the most enormous projects

internationally. The arms embargo was lifted for the war against Al-Shabab in Somalia among other reasons and intentions.

He has also armed untrained and clan-affiliated civilian groups with the latest weapons under this cause. Rather than yielding any positive impact, it aggravated the situation on the ground. To cite an example, elements of militias have already started abusing the civilians at ad hoc checkpoints. Empowering clans would sow the seeds of inter-clan conflict and increase the retaliation amongst them since there has been a long-time existing clan-based grievance. This would give Al-Shabaab a chance to take over and control more areas in Somalia through clan leaders. Al-Shabaab has repeatedly used clan elders and parents for the provision of children to help in their recruitment. Besides, they even infiltrated some of the underprivileged communities of Somalia when they initiated an extensive recruitment drive. These are some of the reasons they hold the lion’s share of Somalia, where they collect their forced ‘Tax’ and other revenues.

Inviting Al-Shabab into the System: A Path to Coalition

In August 2022, Somalia’s administration has appointed Mukhtar Robow aka Abu-Mansoor as religion minister in the cabinet. Mukhtar is the co-founder, Deputy leader and former spokesperson of the deadliest group of Al-Shabaab in Somalia. He was trained in Afghanistan during the anti-soviet war. Though his nomination has created debate, but his appointment seems to be the initial step for creating a new ‘Joint’ or ‘Al-Shabaab-led’ government in Somalia. It has now been announced that Ibrahim Aden Ibrahim, the former Al-Shabab’s head of education in Bay and Bakool regions, has been appointed as the Director General of the same Ministry – Ministry of Religions Affairs of Somalia. He defected from Al-Shabaab and turned himself into the government of Somalia, and he is serving under his former friend in Al-Shabaab, Mukhtar Robow.

Not only political and other civil service positions, but the security sector has also been infiltrated or nominated for former and recently defected Al-shabab fighters and senior leaders. All these are happening under the watch of international partners who sacrifice for their funds and troops to Somalia’s stabilization.

Let’s not forget that Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud is himself an Islamist and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, which shares some ideologies with Al-Shabaab. He is also a close ally of Brotherhood leaders and the former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, due to their shared ideology.

Another Karzai emerging: Lessons from Afghanistan

These actions, in addition to the recent failure of the war against Al-Shabaab, have equated Somalia with Afghanistan, raising fears of an amalgamation and corporation between the current president of Somalia and Al-Shabab or any other radical groups in the country. There are some arguments that discussions and talks with Alshabab are going to result in stable Somalia, which is far from reality on the ground. For instance, after the withdrawal of the international friends from Afghanistan in 2021 and when President Hamid Karzai fled the country, Daliban fighters overtook control of the country. Actions remained their perspective on specific areas such as the system of

education, people’s life style amongst others. Hence, whoever is expecting that Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s strategy of inviting more radicals to his system will decrease a problem should think twice. However, despite highly funded campaigns launched by the incumbent government of Somalia against Alshabab that ended in failure, lately Hassan Sheikh has been trying to divert attention by declaring a diplomatic crisis and beating the drums of war in the region with more proxy wars for various agendas. The international partners who have invested their taxpayers’ money in the cause of Somalia’s stabilization and the war against violent extremists need to bring in strategies that will prevent a repetition of what happened in Afghanistan. Will Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud become the Karzai of Somalia? Time will provide the answer.

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About the Author:

Dr. Barkhad M. Kaariye is currently a regional analyst and researcher.

Twitter (X): @BarkhadKaariye

Email: kaariye204@gmail.com

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The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Horndiplomat editorial policy.
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