Kagame seeks fourth term as Rwandan president

By Danai Nesta Kupemba, BBC News & BBC Great Lakes Service, 

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, feared and admired in equal measure, is seeking to extend his 24-year rule in an election analysts say he will win by a landslide.

He has dominated every election since becoming president in 2000, with over 90% of the vote. In 2017 he won with a staggering 99% in an election criticised by human rights groups.

Mr Kagame, 66, is accused of not allowing any real opposition and ruthlessly targeting his critics, even outside the country.

He faces the only two contenders who were authorised to run – other candidates were barred by the state-run electoral commission.

Mr Kagame cast his vote without speaking to reporters.

He has been the real force in Rwanda since his rebel forces took power at the end of the 1994 genocide which killed some 800,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

Since then, he has been praised for overseeing the country’s dramatic economic revival and unifying the country.

“Rwanda was 30 years ago essentially written off – but thanks to some extent to the leadership under Kagame and his ruling party, Rwanda managed to build some stability,” Dr Felix Ndahinda, a scholar on the Great Lakes region, told the BBC.

Mr Kagame has always fiercely defended Rwanda’s record on human rights, saying his country respects political freedoms.

But one analyst told the BBC the election was a mere “formality”.

About nine million people are registered to vote, according to the electoral body, and at least two million are first-time voters.

Counting has already begun at polling stations and provisional results might be announced by Tuesday morning.

Voters are electing the president and 53 members of the lower House of Parliament on Monday, while 27 other MPs will be chosen on Tuesday.

“I am very excited about voting for my first time, I can’t wait,” Sylvia Mutoni told the BBC.

For most young people in Rwanda, Mr Kagame is the only leader they have ever known.

Even while vice-president and defence minister from 1994 to 2000 he was the country’s real leader, and has been president since 2000.

The two opposition candidates – Frank Habineza, of the Democratic Green Party and independent Philippe Mpayimana – both ran in the 2017 election, where they took just over 1% of the vote between them.

But they are undeterred.

Mr Habineza cast his vote in the capital, Kigali, on Monday morning and said he hoped his party can get 20 MPs – 10 times the number of seats his party secured in 2017.

Before the election, he told the BBC Focus on Africa podcast: “I believe democracy is a process.

“People still have a fear of expressing their opinions. I’m fighting for freedom of speech, freedom of the media,” he said.

And some Rwandans are listening to him. One voter told the BBC he would not be voting for the incumbent president.

Celestin Mutuyeyezu, 28, used to support Mr Kagame, but this election has been swayed by Mr Habineza.

“He said great things on fighting unemployment, and he’s got me,” he said.

But defeating President Kagame may prove difficult.

Diane Rwigara, an outspoken critic of the president, was barred from running in the election. She was also disqualified in 2017.

“Rwanda is portrayed as a country where the economy has been growing. But on the ground, it’s different. People do lack the basics of life, food, water, shelter,” she told the BBC.

The electoral commission said she had failed to provide correct documentation.

Though the country continues to struggle with high rates of youth unemployment, it is one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa.

Mr Kagame is credited for Rwanda’s remarkable economic transformation and stability over the last three decades.

Rwanda is known globally for its clean capital city and having the world’s highest proportion of female MPs, 61%.

In the book Rwanda, Inc. American authors Patricia Crisafulli and Andrea Redmond describe Mr Kagame more as a company CEO than a political leader because of “his drive for excellence” in every sector in the country.

He is also a shrewd politician.

Despite often criticising the West, he tries to cultivate useful allies – for example by working with the UK on its now-abandoned scheme to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Rwanda has also been flexing its soft power on the international stage, by building its appeal through sports, culture, and entertainment.

The small East African country is home to the African Basketball League, which is a partnership with the NBA. It hosted the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in 2022 and international stars like Kendrick Lamar have played concerts there.

But Mr Kagame’s diplomacy also has a very tough side.

The election comes days after a UN report said there were some 4,000 Rwandan troops in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, where they are accused of backing the M23 rebel group.

Rwanda did not deny the allegation and told the BBC the DR Congo government lacked the political will to resolve the crisis in its mineral-rich east, which has witnessed decades of unrest.

On the campaign trail Mr Kagame promised to protect Rwanda from “external aggression” amid tensions with neighbouring DR Congo and Burundi.