Geopolitics in the Horn of Africa

By: Saad M. Aareeye

The horn of Africa is a volatile region and is affected by piracy, terrorism, civil wars and growing protest which are related to either political marginalization or inflation.

The Gulf crisis that started June last year has had negative impact on the region. Most of the countries in the horn of Africa allied with Qadar or Saudi Arabia coalition.

All Horn of Africa countries except Kenya and Ethiopia host foreign military bases. This article, we will look at the negative impacts of these military bases in the horn of Africa.

In 2003 Djibouti had signed an agreement with U.S and leased its soil near the only commercial airport in the country. The agreement is renewable every five years.

U.S Africa Command in Djibouti combats terrorism and piracy, conducts airstrike in Yemen and Somalia and patrols Red Sea. When you look at the agreement, you can analyze the reason.

In May, 2014 U.S president has extended the agreement and nearly doubled the cost from $38 million per year to $63 million. You can see the importance of the military base in Djibouti.

Djibouti not only hosts U.S, but France, which colonized the country, has a military base. Last year China has opened its overseas military base in Djibouti, although China argues it is a supply chain, but it is clear that it has military mission. Djibouti is situated a strategic location and achieved to manage rival countries. Saudi Arabia is expected to open a base soon.

Next to Djibouti is Eritrea which hosts United Arab Emirates in the Red Sea cost.  U.A.E has doubled its foreign policy and presence in the region and attempted two failed bids to both Mogadisho Airport and Sea port in Somalia. Both were awarded to Turkey which is a rival of U.A.E. September Last year Turkey has opened military training center outside Mogadisho, the capital city of Somalia which cost $50 million. The center houses 10, 000 troops and around 300 officers intended to train and manage the base.

Sudan has leased Suakin Island to Turkey for 99 years and is expected to build military base there. Turkey wants to have an access to Red-Sea and challenge U.A.E, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Suakin Island is a strategic location and an area about 20 km square, 66 meters above sea level and 560 km from Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan. Turkish president Tayip Erdogan has visited Sudan last December and signed 13 agreements including infrastructure.

Turkey has applied European Union membership, but failed and shifted its foreign policy to Africa. In 2005 Turkey called the year of Africa and doubled its embassies from 12 to 38.

Now Turkey controls both Red-Sea and Indian Ocean in Somalia and Sudan respectively.

In addition to Eritrea base, last year U.A.E has leased Berbera military base in Somaliland for undisclosed amount of money. U.A.E wants to take aerial bombardment to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Coalitions led by Saudi Arabia failed to restore peace and political stability in Yemen and humanitarian organizations say the situation in Yemen is deteriorating and millions are starving to death. So far, neither Saudi coalition nor Houthi rebels backed by Iran win the war.

Ethiopia is building Grand Resainance Dam in the upper Nile to generate Hydro-electric power which will provide Ethiopians cheap electricity and will improve both the economy and business. But Egypt which receives almost 87% of the Nile River closely watches the Ethiopian Grand Resianance Dam and trying to block any efforts to complete the project. Last months, Ethiopian and Egyptian officials including Prime Minister Desalign and president Abdel lFatah al-Sisi were meeting to solve the differences and reach agreements, but so far no deal is done.

Military bases in the Horn of Africa imported opposing foreign policies and caused internal chaos in the region. Somalia suffered the most, when Federal members declined to obey the neutral position that the federal government has taken. Ethiopia is suspicious the military base in Berbera where U.A.E took the control of strategic location of the Red Sea cost which is about 300 km to the Ethiopian border and Egypt may use the base because  U.A.E is an ally of Egypt.

Saudi Arabia and U.A.E are furious the Turkish military base in Suakin Island. Djibouti hosts the two most economic powers–China and U.S.

Saad M. Aareeye is a columnist and independent researcher based in Hargeysa,

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Horndiplomat editorial policy.

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